Baseball’s Greatest Players: Rankings Based on Sabermetrics
Sabermetrics is a term for the analysis of baseball statistics. I have ranked the top 200 position players and the top 150 pitchers in the history of major league baseball by summing the ranks of career statistics. While this approach objectively compares the statistics achieved by the players, it does not address comparisons among eras or "what if" scenarios. I suspect that like all objectively measured sports, baseball players of the last few decades are much better than those of the glory days when baseball first became the national past-time. However we do not know this because Babe Ruth never got a chance to bat against Sandy Koufax and Barry Bonds never hit against Christy Mathewson. Several interesting "what ifs" affect how we rank players. What if Josh Gibson, Satchel Paige and Jackie Robinson were allowed to have spent their entire careers in MLB? I wish that they had. What if Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio didn’t have to leave baseball for military service? What if Joe Jackson were able to continue his career? What if Babe Ruth spent his entire career as an outfielder or as a pitcher? We don’t know, and I don’t believe in speculation. What follows are analyses that compare the ballplayers based on what they actually did.
200 Greatest Position Players
I began my analysis by comparing the hitting of each player with at least 1500 base hits. I used five categories of accumulated totals. These stats would be greatly affected by the longevity of the player. They were runs, hits, home runs, RBIs, and run production (= runs + rbi). Then I used four stats of efficiency. These stats are based on percentages and are not affected by longevity. They were batting average, slugging percentage, runs produced per at bat, and total percentage ([r+h+hr+rbi]/ab). Lastly I included three stats based on dominance. This included the number of seasons that the player led the league in a hitting category, the number of silver slugger awards (number of time being the best hitter at his position for the season), and the number of season winning the MVP or being the best hitter in the league for a season. I chose hypothetical silver sluggers and MVPs for years in which it was not awarded and for years in which a pitcher won the MVP. I did not include the number of times named to the all-star team because of the dubious way in which these awards are chosen. We have had enough Bucky Dents over Robin Younts for me to consider the all-star game a reliable honor. Players were ranked for each category and the ranks were summed. I then ranked the players based on their summed ranks.
Initially Babe Ruth was rated the top hitter followed by Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, Ty Cobb, Mel Ott, and Jimmy Foxx & Frank Robinson tied for 10th.
I then added stats to measure all around ability. I included stolen bases and the number of season leading the league in stolen bases. For fielding I included an estimate of the number of runs saved compared to an average fielder at the position, the number of seasons leading the league in runs saved and fielding percentage, and the number of golden glove awards. For years when no golden gloves were awarded, I chose hypothetical golden glovers by picking the players at each position with the most runs saved for the season.
Adding these categories moved Willie Mays to the best all around position player followed by Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Honus Wagner, Jimmy Foxx, Frank Robinson, Stan Musial, and Lou Gehrig.
Jim Rice is the top retired position player who is eligible for the Hall of Fame, but not yet voted in. Dave Parker, Dwight Evans, Dale Murphy and Pete Rose follow him. Dave Winfield is the top recently retired player who is not yet eligible for the Hall. Eddie Murray, Andre Dawson, Rhyne Sandberg and Paul Molitor follow him. Barry Bonds is the top active player followed by Ricky Henderson, Ken Griffey Jr., Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken, Jr. Surely these are all Hall of Famers, but I will say more about my votes for the Hall of Fame in future essays.
Are some players over rated? Are others under rated? Perhaps. In the recent All-Century top athletes of the century, Jackie Robinson was #4 among baseball players, Pete Rose #10, and Roberto Clemente #15. All were great Hall of Famers, but their statistics objectively rank them #129, #68 and #39 respectively. The fan voting for the MLB All-Century Team had Mark McGwire #2 among first basemen (#16 in my analysis) and Cap Anson was left off of the ballot (#3 on my list). For second basemen Jackie Robinson was voted #1 (#11 on my list), Nap Lajoie was only voted #5 (first on my list) and Rhyne Sandberg (#7 on my list) was left off of the ballot. Among outfielders, Joe Jackson (voted #12 vs. #70 my list), Lou Brock (#19 vs. #65), Pete Rose (#9 vs. #39) and Roberto Clemente (#10 vs. #24) seem to be the most over rated. Ed Delahanty (not on ballot vs. #14), Mel Ott (#26 vs. #9), Tris Speaker (#21 vs. #5), Al Simmons (#28 vs. #12), Dave Winfield (not on ballot vs. #19), Andre Dawson (not on ballot vs. #22), Al Kaline (#23 vs. #15) and Jim Rice (not on ballot vs. #25) seem to be the most under rated outfielders.
My All-Century position players are:
C: Yogi Berra & Johnny Bench
1B: Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, & Cap Anson
2B: Nap Lajoie & Rogers Hornsby
3B: Mike Schmidt & George Brett
SS: Honus Wagner & Ernie Banks
RF: Babe Ruth, Frank Robinson, Stan Musial*
CF: Willie Mays, Ty Cobb & Mickey Mantle
LF: Hank Aaron, Tris Speaker & Ted Williams*
DH: Paul Molitor & Harold Baines* (Williams and Musial unless the player really was a DH)
My All-Quarter century position players (since I’ve been watching baseball)
C: Johnny Bench & Carlton Fisk
1B: Eddie Murray & Mark McGwire
2B: Joe Morgan & Rhyne Sandberg
3B: Mike Schmidt & George Brett
SS: Cal Ripken Jr. & Robin Yount
RF: Reggie Jackson & Andre Dawson
CF: Ken Griffey Jr. & Dale Murphy
LF: Barry Bonds & Ricky Henderson
DH: Paul Molitor & Harold Baines
Mike Schmidt and Barry Bonds would rate as the best players that I have seen play in their prime.
Among the stats used to rank the position players, several were moderately to strongly correlated with final ranks. Runs produced (r = 0.86), RBIs (r = 0.80) and Runs (r = 0.78) were the accumulated stats most highly correlated with rank. Total percentage (r = 0.77) and Runs produced per at bat (r = 0.67) were the efficiencies most highly correlated with rank. Number of times leading the league (r = 0.66) and the total number of times leading the league + #gold gloves + #MVPs (r = 0.72) were the measures of dominance most highly correlated with rank. In other words, players who had lots of runs scored and lots of RBIs, led the league often and were efficient at bat (good averages and slugging) ranked higher on the list.
150 Greatest Pitchers
I began my analysis by comparing the pitching stats of pitchers with at least 100 wins, or 100 saves or winning percentages greater than .600. I used nine categories of accumulated totals. These stats would be greatly affected by the longevity of the pitcher. They were wins, wins minus losses, shutouts, saves, strikeouts, Innings pitched minus earned runs, number of runs saved compared to the average pitcher in the league, and number of runs saved by fielding compared to the average fielder. I used five stats of efficiency based on percentages. They were winning percentage, ERA, strikeouts per 9 innings, RAT (number of hits+walks per 9 innings), innings per game pitched, and number of runs saved per 9 innings. Lastly I included two stats based on dominance. This included the number of seasons that the player led the league in a pitching category, and the number of Cy Young awards plus the number of season winning the MVP or being the best pitcher in the league for a season. I chose hypothetical Cy Young and MVPs for years in which it was not awarded and for years in which a pitcher won the MVP. Pitchers were ranked for each category and the ranks were summed. I then ranked the pitchers based on their summed ranks.
The top pitcher all time was Christy Mathewson followed by Grover Cleveland Alexander, Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Tom Seaver, Tim Keefe, Warren Spahn, John Clarkson, Roger Clemens and Kid Nichols. The top relief pitcher was Hoyt Wilhelm followed by Rollie Fingers , Dennis Eckersley, John Franco and Rich Gossage.
Jim McCormick is the highest-ranking pitcher who has not been elected to the Hall of Fame, followed by Eddie Cicotte, Tony Mullane, Bob Caruthers and Bert Blyleven.
Other recently retired pitchers who rank high but have not been elected to the Hall of Fame include Tommy John, Ron Guidry, Louis Tiant, Dennis Eckersley and Rich Gossage.
Roger Clemens ranks as the highest active pitcher followed by Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, David Cone and Pedro Martinez.
Who were some over rated and under rated pitchers? Sandy Koufax was rated the #1 pitcher by the Sport Century poll and the #2 pitcher in the fan ballot for the All-century team while I had him ranked #29. Bob Gibson was ranked #4 by SportCentury and # 5 by All-century but only #17 in my rankings. Nolan Ryan was voted #1 in the All-century voting but only ranked #44 in my analysis. Dizzy Dean also seems over rated (#19 in All-century vs. #65 in my ranking). Dennis Eckersley and Rollie Fingers ranked among the top 21 pitchers in the all-century poll, but are #83 & #84 on my list. However, I do rate them among the top three relief pitchers all time. Several under rated pitchers include Christy Mathewson and Grover Alexander who were ranked 1-2 in my analysis but did not make the top 13 pitchers in the all-century poll nor were on the SportCentury list. Tim Keefe, John Clarkson and Kid Nichols are Hall of Famers who rank among the top 10 in my analysis but were not even on the All-century ballot.
My All-Century Pitchers are:
SP: Christy Mathewson
SP: Grover Alexander
SP: Walter Johnson
SP: Cy Young
SP: Tom Seaver
SP: Tim Keefe
SP: Warren Spahn
RP: Hoyt Wilhelm
RP: Rollie Fingers
RP: Dennis Eckersley
My All-Quarter century Pitchers are:
SP: Tom Seaver
SP: Roger Clemens
SP: Jim Palmer
SP: Greg Maddux
SP: Steve Carlton
SP: Phil Niekro
SP: Don Sutton
RP: Rollie Fingers
RP: Dennis Eckersley
RP: Rich Gossage
Tom Seaver and Roger Clemens rank as the best pitchers that I have seen pitch in their prime.
Among the stats used to rank the pitchers, several were moderately to strongly correlated with final ranks. Runs saved compared to average pitchers (r = 0.82), wins minus losses (r = 0.76), wins (r = 0.66) and shutouts (r = 0.64) were the accumulated stats most highly correlated with rank. None of the efficiencies were highly correlated with rank. Number of time leading the league (r = 0.79) and the total number of Cy Young + MVPs (r = 0.69) were the measures of dominance most highly correlated with rank. In other words, pitchers who saved lots of runs, won a lot , and led the league often ranked higher on the list.
Best Baseball Player of All-time?
Now for my final word on the best baseball player of all time. One might expect that it would be between Willie Mays, the best all-around position player, and Christy Mathewson, the best pitcher. I do not know how to compare the accomplishments of pitchers vs. hitters. However, there was one player who ranked on both lists. Babe Ruth was the #1 hitter, the #3 all-around position player and the #106 pitcher. As a pitcher Ruth rated higher than three Hall of Fame pitchers! For Willie Mays to rank as an overall better player than Ruth, he would have had to been about as good a pitcher as Vida Blue. To rate Christy Mathewson as a better baseball player than the Babe, then he would have had to hit as well as Enos Slaughter. Babe Ruth gets my vote as the baseball player of the century as well as the athlete of the century.